Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Bond King Bill Gross Dumps U.S. Treasury's
One day after major-leaguer Carl Icahn decided to give back his investors money due to potential market downside, another huge player in the casino of wall street has decided to (CASH) in his stakes in the form of U.S. Treasury's. The undisputed bond king, Bill Gross manager of (PIMCO) feels that due to the potential inflationary pressures applied by the Feds Quantitative Easing strategies Treasury yields will be adversely affected. I would say he is qualified in his judgment since he oversees the largest bond fund on the planet at an estimated 1.1 Trillion, thus being nicknamed the Bond King. By the way the bond market can be likened to the gasoline that fuels an economy's growth, without it the engine stalls and you have a lost decade effect just like Japan. As we approach the four year mark in the great recession we seem to be tracking or mimicking a similar pattern with anemic at best core data numbers, like sub three percent GDP, high unemployment figures, and commodities and inflation on the rise. The fundamentals just are not there, and we seem to have artificially propped up the stock market just as we did with the banking system. Things will become more transparent when QE2 ends in June and inflation takes hold, just remember economics is math at its purest, its all formula based and interconnected.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Icahnic Indicator
One of the most prolific hedge fund managers ever has decided to give back approximately 1.6 Billion dollars in investors money by April 1st, due to his belief that the current market is so unstable and could quite possibly take a turn for the worse. Yes Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Chris Shumway have decided to Hedge there bets, sorry for the pun by temporarily, or permanently disconnecting themselves from potential investor losses. With a total past return record of over 104% and 8.7% in the first two months this year Icahn Capital finds this market to risky. It seems to definitely be overvalued, and has run-up to fast to be considered stable. The only solid indicator is that almighty Wall Street has not lost its groove in the bubble creation department.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Derailing Higher Education
Apparently a change is in the works for those that are seeking a graduate degree that will undoubtedly kill the aspirations for many students dream of a Higher Education. Instead of interest being paid back for Federal student loans after a student graduates, it will begin accruing from the first day of there first class, making the total cost outlandish. This type of activity is no different than the corrupt mechanisms developed by the Mortgage Industry to entrap individuals that have no other option in achieving the American dream. Our kids are already under attack by many schools, in the form of unreasonable escalating fees levied by prominent learning institutions throughout the country. This problem is rampant in California where the Board Of Regents is left to spread its systemic fee damage. In turn social unrest has developed at many demonstrations at college campuses throughout the state. These individuals have allowed wealth managers to lose over twenty four billion dollars in endowment money in recent years, and the students, faculty and others have to pay the price for inept investment participation. Recently an estimate of Trillions of dollars in student loan defaults is to be expected in the next decade. Could this move be a strategic hedge against future exposure rates by the Federal government?. If this is the case the shape of higher education will change from one of equal access to all, to only those individuals that come from affluent family's where financial aid is not needed, and students lucky enough to obtain a full ride scholarship.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
A Hurricane Called Inflation
Cost pressures are everywhere due to the Feds insatiable appetite for Printing Money. The prices at the pump have risen dramatically recently, cotton is at its highest level in a decade, copper is the highest its been in 40 years, and the price of corn, sugar, wheat, beef, pork, and coffee are going through the roof as we speak. Just as we have recently witnessed in China's effort to cool inflationary pressures in its own economy, rates will undoubtedly rise here in the U.S. cooling the jets of recovery in the mortgage sector. Corporate earnings will contract due to higher internal costs, welcome to the world of Quantitative Easing. We have borrowed and spent are way into a financial quagmire and according to the Obama administrations latest budget plans, the poor and middle class must absorb the hit. Areas like the student loan market, Medical, Medicaid, home heating for the poor, children's programs, social security, welfare, and everything considered an entitlement will be on the chopping blocks. Is this really the type of people we want to become?. The answers wont be easy, but the line of ethical and moral issues have to be addressed if this Nation is to continue on a successful path.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Double Standard
As the world witnesses history in the making in Egypt, our allies should ponder our seemingly dual standard policy position in aligning ourselves with the people, as opposed to the governmental regimes in such international conflicts. If you are a dictator of a small country, or even a large Communist Nation you just got a real time experiment in how the U.S. will react to such an uprising or revolution. Have we completely lost our minds as far as common sense is concerned?. Why not just fly under the radar, and let them work it out for themselves. Instead we have to instruct others by providing an American blueprint or game plan as big brother to the world. Its no wonder were broke as John Boehner stated in his most recent interview, we pay countries like Egypt over a billion dollars a year with borrowed money from China for God knows what. Now one of the Egyptian military leaders stated on their second day of new found independence that a bailout would be needed to rebuild the peoples job base in Egypt. Sounds like code for tighten your seat belt American taxpayer we need some of that Nation-building cash you people are so adept at doling out. At some point our own people are going to start realizing how this really works and start a FACE BOOK REVOLUTION via GOOGLE EXEC themselves.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Hornet's Nest
Friday Vice President Joe Biden continued to amaze me with his ability to say what he thinks without consideration of the potential ramifications. Speaking at the University of Louisville in Kentucky, he urged Iranians to let your people march, let your people speak, release your people from jail, let them have a voice. By doing such things we only promote the negative perception of a dangerously meddling nation trying to impose our belief systems throughout the globe in the name of Democracy. We portray ourselves as the worlds savior, when in reality we only increase global Anti-American sentiment and hatred with such remarks. There is a key difference between what is occurring in Egypt between demonstrators and the Egyptian military, and potential demonstrations in Iran and its called lethal force, its much more probable under the same conditions that the Iranian military would open fire on its own people and Biden should consider this possibility before he makes such comments. The Muslim brotherhood and others throughout the world view this as an opportunity to continue to market us as president Mohammad Ahmadinejad likes to call us the Great Satan.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Quantitative Easing 2 = Great Recession 2
As Ben Bernanke is questioned by members of congress this week in relation to the Federal Reserves recent Quantitative Easing position and the potential inflationary pressures it could apply here and abroad, one got the feeling old Ben was talking down to those that questioned his strategy and authority. He deflected the notion that policy here in the United States was causing a rise in commodities such as food and energy, and the resulting civil unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, and potentially other nations. The fact is clear that debasing the value of the worlds reserve currency which the dollar is, applies inflationary pressures and commodities rise, the civil unrest usually occurs first in poorer nations where they cannot sustain such increases in the cost of such vital resources. Here in the United States we are better insulated from these increases due to a far greater standard of living, and wealth of its average citizens. Strangely enough the complaints of the Egyptian people of a broadening disparity between the rich and poor are starting to sound like a familiar theme in the U.S. between the middle class and the rich. Such issues as national deficits, unfunded pension liabilities, and the diminished wealth of average Americans will probably increase in the years ahead if comprehensive and effective solutions are not made.
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