Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Frozen Legacy

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration a study has just been completed by 300 scientists from 48 countries on global rising temperatures, and the conclusion is the last decade is the hottest on record. In addition 10 major indicators all reflected major and accelerated decline in areas that help mitigate rising surface temperatures. All involved in the study agree that global warming is now undeniable, what ever happened to the theory of majority rules on issues of major importance. NOW not LATER is the time to discount the naysayers as the subversive wackjobs that they are, bought and paid for by corrupt politicians and big oil. The net result of a 6 degree rise in temperature is a full blown ice age, is this fact really something we believe we can ignore or put off until we see the full force of mother natures wrath. The fist step in making progress is not letting those individuals that claim that this is all a cyclical act of nature have a credible platform to spread there ignorance. The world revolves on principles of math and science and the numbers do not lie, we have put natural global warming on steroids. We can mitigate these effects by embracing the energy technology sector with the same passion we embraced the information technology sector and the advent of the Internet. This can only be achieved through higher education and the new generation of young innovators it develops.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Quantitative Easing

At this point in time the federal reserve must consider additional precautions in ensuring continued progress with this recession. Currently the U.S. is so laden with debt and interest rates have been so low for so long that the next bullet in the Feds arsenal will undoubtedly be quantitative easing. This is a form of monetary policy used by the central banking system to artificially increase the money supply by crediting its own bank account with money it has created out of nothing. It then purchases bonds and other assets and this process is also coined as printing money. The trick is to not flood the economy with to much money to fast, this is called monetary velocity, and the risk is hyperinflation. Ben Bernanke recently stated that the outlook for this economy is unusually uncertain and is prepared to take additional steps if needed, what those steps are will remain to be seen.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Artificial Market Suppression

A new sheriff has taken dominion over the U.S. Stock Market, these individuals are faster, smarter, and more market savvy than most seasoned veterans of Wall Street could ever dream of being. They are known within this select community as ATQS or Algorithmic Trading Quant. Most were hired by the financial services industry between 2004-2007 fresh out of MIT. They were asked to design everything from mortgage mechanisms to ultra low latency packages used for speedy trades within the market, the bottom line is they have immobilized markets world wide with there high frequency trading ability's. Crushing markets by shorting everything with a pulse, and treating those with a long trading mindset as just collateral damage. A comfortable range between 9500-10,500 on the dow seems to be the target zone for massive trading exchanges. Only regulation can reestablish the wealth generating machine of the U.S. Stock Market now.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Lost Decade

As current economic indicators reflect an anemic recovery at best, we must now consider the fact that a deflationary spiral is not only possible but probable. This phenomena occurs when an economy spends more time in a recessionary mode as opposed to an expansion mode. Our best example of this is Japan where a whole decade of growth progress was lost in there last recession. Choked off by bad loans on banks balance sheets lending was stalled and resulted in a pullback in consumer spending, businesses cut back on inventory and laid off workers, prices fell as a result. A double dip recession is a better scenario because you can move forward and be done with it, as opposed to feeling the long lasting effects of a lost decade. Job creation is the key to reactivating the economic engine of long term growth, without it this country will continue to follow Japans precarious example by history repeating itself here in the United States.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Keynesian Endpoint

Those familiar with economic theory have at one time or another studied the Keynesian theory of economics, and the United States is embarking on a path of uncharted waters in relation to this theory, many experts refer to this as a Keynesian Endpoint. This occurs when overextended governments refuse to float each other due to the volatility within their own economy's and as a stabilization strategy greatly reduce or refuse to purchase the debt of another nation, usually in the form of treasury's. Currently the U.S. accumulates approximately 1.6 Trillion dollars a year in debt, and only saves 500 Billion a year. These levels are unsustainable and will unquestionably result in a negative feedback loop. China is experiencing an overheated economy and has stated that in the near future U.S. Treasury purchases will be greatly reduced in an attempt to cool inflationary pressures. Foreign governments currently hold 4-Trillion dollars in U.S. debt, and we will have to turn to our central banking system for relief. Printing money will apply inflationary pressures thus making most products to expensive to purchase and consume resulting in a blowout effect. History has shown that hyper inflationary damage is systemic in nature and has brought whole nations to its knees. A third world nation effect in the U.S. would be tragic in many regards, and this we cannot afford.